Hand of Hsaka

In depth look at a wolf's ability to move the markets

If you also find yourself scrolling crypto twitter 24 hours a day you might be familiar with what I like to call the “Hsaka phenomenon”. Not only are we witnessing a wolf who can somehow use Twitter, but a wolf with the ability to move the crypto markets. A wolf you say?

Who is Hsaka

While we don’t know much about the legendary discretionary trader we do know they enjoy the memes and the volatility just like the rest of us.

Unlike the rest of us meme loving degenerate trading animals Hsaka wields a power few of us have. Harnessing over 200k followers and a rock solid backtest of great market calls he can use his social capital to move the markets.

Pays to Tweet?

It all starts with Hsaka tweeting $ with the ticker. Not only is this good for increasing the reach of the of the engagement but it allows algos to easily pick up on the tweet itself. Combine this with a NLP bot trained on Gainzy’s tweets and pepe the frog memes we might have ourselves some extra beer money. Below is every $LUNA tweet with its PnL (1m to 2h since tweet) and volume profile. Bear with me on the charts, girls think giving birth is hard try plotting something with matplotlib….

Wednesday, August 18, 2021 1:00:59 PM

“What’s the next $LUNA / $SOL ?” he asked ignorantly, succumbing to the same trap on a dozen prior occasions, obliv… https://t.co/kSNZPmWGen

Wednesday, August 18, 2021 11:25:35 PM

Oh? $LUNA ATH (again) https://t.co/kcrWUBT3IW

Thursday, August 19, 2021 4:45:03 AM

$LUNA is yet to enter price discovery against $ETH btw. https://t.co/MTHMWRZyho

Tuesday, August 24, 2021 12:21:18 AM

That was a good post ATH break chopsolidation range on $LUNA. Second leg soon?

Saturday, August 28, 2021 3:59:11 PM

Tabasco is up to something. I can feel it. Closed a bunch and shoved into $LUNA. Can’t complain about 55% in 12hrs.

Sunday, September 26, 2021 10:51:28 AM

Heard Novo gets stripped of his cameo credits in Billions if $LUNA doesn’t trade back above $40 soon.

Monday, October 4, 2021 7:10:40 AM

Heard Novo gets a cameo in the next season of Succession if $LUNA trades above $60 soon. https://t.co/ncanETy1EW

Monday, October 4, 2021 4:08:37 PM

$LUNA https://t.co/DDIDfO9LQa

Thursday, October 7, 2021 3:32:03 PM

L1s catching the strongest bid. FTM, ATOM. Novo, when $LUNA?

Wednesday, October 20, 2021 3:45:21 PM

$LUNA (along with some other L1s) casually outperforming during a BTC ATH break. It’s alright, you can continue wa… https://t.co/1zgt467z1W

Wednesday, October 20, 2021 6:07:59 PM

Buy high, sell higher. $LUNA https://t.co/xSFEbS7q00 https://t.co/czuyCC9vL6

Friday, October 22, 2021 6:08:53 PM

Intern just submitted their $LUNA report. Was pretty extensive, will try to distill it as well as I can. 🧵👇 1/n… https://t.co/axcCZukBpS

Wednesday, November 3, 2021 8:10:07 PM

Novo definitely rolling that into $LUNA https://t.co/kua9rtWQHK

Status Report Kowalski

Overall you can see from the volume profiles something is clearly happening. Below we can graph the returns of each tweet. Maybe the effectiveness starts to wear off or was it simply the momentum of the market during those time periods?

Regardless of the reason, there was still money to be made off these tweets if one acted swift enough. Just buying every tweet associated with $LUNA would net you ~ .50% even if you were late to the trade. Now enough with Novo’s bags lets look at his past ~200 tweets.

Last ~200 tweets

As you can see from the chart, a mix of low cap / volume tends to outperform which would make sense given it takes less money to move the market but you also have to consider the sample size. As you can see from the top performers there is almost no buying until after Hsaka tweets.

This trend is very similar for the other low caps / top performers. Even including majors like BTC and ETH we still have a positive performance which is pretty impressive.

Are you being dumped on anon?

Taking a look at the average performance for every tweet past a 30s-5min window we actually see no significant drop off but rather a increased profit. There is little data to suggest there are active asks waiting to fill off the apes. Although there is a slight mean reversion on low cap tweets we can see in HBAR and KSM specifically. So if your no gunslinger id stay away.

Change in open interest follows a relatively normal distribution with mean increase of .70% and STD of .12%. This would suggest there is a slight bump in increased activity following his tweets in a 5 minute before and after timeframe.

Conclusion

Im no math wizard but I believe there is enough here to see what kind of power Hsaka wields. Is he most likely very good at recognizing momentum? prolly. Is there money to be made off of this? Maybe, but you would need an algo that solely focuses on determining if there is enough liquidity present to market buy and also only focus on low cap stuff. The best trade could be to become Hsaka best fren and know his positions before he sends out the tweet. But for all we know Hsaka may work alone as he doesn’t want anyone else stepping in his tracks……

Funny enough while working on this blog I had Hsaka notifications on. Saw a tweet about $ONE some L1 shitcoin. Instantly put down my shake shack burger (gota add cherry peppers btw) hit the market buy and continued to watch the apes bid.

PS…look at the data you might find something interesting. But im no Fredo

chip and a chair frens

-fozzy @fozzydiablo

shout out to Tardis. without their data this would not be possible. if you are looking for data that is reliable and clean they are the best option.