I agree with your premises that (1) Saylor represented a big portion of the BTC market last year, and (2) his influence is waning. But you hastily assert some (incorrect) assumptions, like the fact that Saylor will be hunted -- the majority of MSTR loans are preferred equity so Saylor's effective liquidation price is stupidly low, like sub 10k, and there isn't a universe where you can justify the scale, cost, risk, and coordination required to successfully "hunt" BTC to this price, from 60k(?) BTC.
I also don't this necessarily implies that ~$200 MSTR is a price that Saylor will defend, like you acknowledge in the article his ability to raise is mostly dependent on MSTR volatility, not price. Moreover, you conclude that short alts long BTC is a trade that will benefit from his waning influence? Is it not the opposite?
hunt bit for drama, but $200 is most definitely a level saylor looks at assuming he wants to keep a 1.5x premium. and yes remaining short alts long btc as saylor is the only buyer but not enough in size to kick start a vol event that would bring alts along with it. no vol no alt bid
I agree with your premises that (1) Saylor represented a big portion of the BTC market last year, and (2) his influence is waning. But you hastily assert some (incorrect) assumptions, like the fact that Saylor will be hunted -- the majority of MSTR loans are preferred equity so Saylor's effective liquidation price is stupidly low, like sub 10k, and there isn't a universe where you can justify the scale, cost, risk, and coordination required to successfully "hunt" BTC to this price, from 60k(?) BTC.
I also don't this necessarily implies that ~$200 MSTR is a price that Saylor will defend, like you acknowledge in the article his ability to raise is mostly dependent on MSTR volatility, not price. Moreover, you conclude that short alts long BTC is a trade that will benefit from his waning influence? Is it not the opposite?
hunt bit for drama, but $200 is most definitely a level saylor looks at assuming he wants to keep a 1.5x premium. and yes remaining short alts long btc as saylor is the only buyer but not enough in size to kick start a vol event that would bring alts along with it. no vol no alt bid
What tools does Saylor have to defend $200? Do you think his influence in the BTC market continues to slow, or starts to accelerate again?
love it